Pre-Holiday Procurement Demand Did Not Materialize, SS Futures Rebounded, Stainless Steel Spot Prices Remained Stable [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

SMM, September 22: SS futures showed signs of stopping falling and rebounding. Starting from the night session on Friday, SS futures began to stop falling and gradually strengthened, further rising at the opening of the daytime session, with the intraday price once approaching 13,000 yuan/mt, and overall fluctuating around the 12,900 yuan/mt level during the day. On the spot market side, driven by the rise in SS futures, inquiry activity increased slightly before noon, and traders raised their offers modestly, but actual transaction results were not ideal. As pre-holiday stockpiling demand before the National Day holiday has not yet become evident, stainless steel spot prices remained largely stable.

Futures side, the most-traded contract 2511 was in the doldrums. At 10:30 a.m., SS2511 was quoted at 12,930 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 340-640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 13,200 yuan/mt, and in Foshan 13,200 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, 25,750 yuan/mt, and in Foshan 25,750 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, both regions reported 25,150 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 430/2B coil, both Wuxi and Foshan reported 7,600 yuan/mt.

Although it is currently the traditional September-October peak season for consumption, and end-use demand for stainless steel has indeed recovered compared to earlier periods, stainless steel mills' production also increased simultaneously during the month, so the stainless steel market did not show a clear strengthening trend. Market participants generally felt the overall atmosphere was sluggish, and the market did not exhibit the vibrant transaction scene expected during the peak season. Although inventory gradually declined, stainless steel spot prices struggled to rise. This week, the US Fed officially implemented an interest rate cut of 25 basis points, in line with prior market expectations. SS futures had already struggled to break through the previous bottleneck of 13,000 yuan/mt, and after the short-term macro tailwinds were realized, futures turned downward. Downstream acceptance of high prices in the spot market was already low, and the pullback in futures prices further intensified wait-and-see sentiment. Additionally, further increases in the prices of nickel and chromium raw materials on the cost side also encountered resistance. Although, in the short term, influenced by the traditional peak season, low social inventory, and approaching pre-holiday stockpiling demand before the National Day, stainless steel prices are unlikely to see significant declines, the momentum for further increases is clearly insufficient at present.